Allan Mecham一直是我很喜歡的投資人，2012年美國的Money曾有報導，台灣的智富雜誌後來也報導過他，之後我就有持續follow，這邊有一個他自己的presentation，介紹他的投資風格，還有他的績效，從1999/12-2014/12，扣掉費用之後的年化報酬率是18%，S&P 500只有4.2%，在2008-2014年，年化報酬率是31%，S&P 500是9.9%，這是很恐怖的成績，昨天讀了很多其他關於Allan Mecham的文章，整理一下他的投資風格跟流程，可以學習。最重要的心得是：選擇自己最擅長的方法，然後集中心力，資源跟資本在這個方法。Play your own game, stick with your circle of competence.
投資風格
- Understand the business like an owner：這是他最核心的投資風格，這種思考心態使得他會：
- To think hard about the important variables：他認為as the number of variables requiring analysis increase, the odds of success decline, yet the confidence of participants soar due to extensive time and energy invested. 變數越多，準確度越低，而有些重要變數是難以量化的，像是品牌，管理層，地點等等。
- To think long term：他所思考的是the business's staying power，the barriers to entry，competitive landscape/threats，the ongoing capital needs，overall economics and the management
- Focus on track record, and generally stay away from unproven companies with short histories
- Stress test every investment idea under various economic scenarios：重點在於找出不怕景氣衰退的公司，他的觀念在於，他沒辦法預測景氣走勢，也不用花時間去預測，所以就要找在景氣大幅衰退時也會存活的公司，他表示說：We prefer cockroach-like businesses - very hardy and almost impossible to kill.
- Read a lot. Think and wait. don't act.
喜歡的企業型態
- low-cost operators with economies of scale
- selling a product or service that’s mission critical, yet is a small fraction of total costs
- auction related businesses
- distributor
分析管理層要注意的地方
- Is management promotional and aggressive?
- Are they overly focused on shortterm guidance?
- Is management candid and realistic?
- How does management think about the business?
- Are they rational long-term thinkers?
- Do they use sound metrics to measure results?
- Is the accounting aggressive or conservative?
- What’s management’s attitude toward debt?
- Are incentives and compensation sensible?
- Avoid companies with shareholder communication is laced with jargon, clutter, and clichés
投資人應該要有的心態
- Buying the business outright and retaining management, not just renting the business
- Quality always comes first, but value is also demanded.
- Don't spend too much time on spreadsheet, fancy model and optimistic forecast.
- Stick to what we know. Admit "I don't know" - 這點很重要也是最難的，他最喜歡費曼的一句話：Don't fool yourself, and remember you are the easiest person to fool。承認無知是智慧的開端。
- Being diligent, humble and thinking independently are key ingredients to solid risk management.
- Simplicity, patience, discipline and intellectual honesty
投資人要注意
- 過度樂觀，高估自己的能力，反而低估投資風險：Many times I think it can be a situation where you just don't understand the business well enough and the bullish thesis is the nudge that sedates the ligering risks you don't fully grasp.
- 了解buisness很重要，但了解自己也是同等重要：You have to understand the nature and facts governing the business/idea and, equally important, you need to understand the subconscious biases driving your decision making — you need to understand the business, but you also need to understand yourself!
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